What changed

The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) released 2025 driver shortage analysis in late October 2025. The estimated shortage of 70,000 to 80,000 drivers is narrower than the 2022 peak (where some estimates ran above 80,000) but remains structurally significant.

Demographics drive the shortage: average age of long-haul drivers continues to climb (now 47), the female-driver share grew slightly to 7.7%, and the new-CDL pipeline through ELDT-registered training providers has stabilized but not expanded materially.

Where the shortage concentrates

OTR (over-the-road) general freight is the most acute shortage segment. Regional and dedicated routes are easier to staff because home-time predictability matters more to drivers than wage premium.

Hazmat-endorsed drivers are the tightest specialty market. The tightening 49 CFR §172.704 training rule (covered in a separate post) plus the security-screening barrier means the hazmat-eligible driver pool grows slowly.

What carriers can do

Recruitment-side: improve home-time programs, mileage-rate transparency, and equipment quality. ATRI surveys consistently show these factors outweighing pure wage in driver retention decisions.

Onboarding-side: smooth the post-hire 90 days. Driver attrition is heavily concentrated in the first 90 days at a new carrier; investments in mentor programs, terminal time, and dispatcher training pay off in retention.

What to do next

Carriers should benchmark their 90-day retention rate. Below 60% is a warning sign; above 80% is best-in-class. Investments in onboarding programs typically move the needle within 6 months.