What changed

The American Trucking Associations' Truck Tonnage Index for Q1 2026 came in at 117.4, up 2.4% year-over-year. The index measures total trucked freight tonnage across the broader US economy and is one of the most reliable freight-demand signals.

Spot-market rates (DAT load board reported) flattened against 2024 levels - some lanes saw modest increases, others modest decreases. Contract rates held 4-6% above 2024, reflecting the gradual normalization of post-pandemic pricing.

Diesel price stabilization

EIA reports diesel prices in the $3.65-$3.85/gal range across most of Q1 2026, with regional variation. California (CARB diesel mandate) ran $4.50-$4.85; Northeast (heating-oil-coupled supply) ran $3.95-$4.15; the South and Mountain West clustered around the national average.

Stable fuel prices at predictable levels reduces hedging premium for carriers and lets dispatch lock in margin. The 2022-2023 swings between $3.50 and $5.50 made cost forecasting nearly impossible.

Capacity and equipment

New Class 8 truck orders (ACT Research data) ran 22,500 in Q1 2026 - close to flat against 2024. Equipment availability has stabilized but not loosened to pre-pandemic levels. Lead time for tractor delivery is 4-6 months for major OEMs.

Driver capacity remains constrained but less acute than 2022. ELDT-driven training pipeline has stabilized at roughly 145,000 new CDL graduates per year.

What to do next

Carriers running mixed contract / spot operations should renew contract pricing aggressively for the remainder of 2026 - the spot market is unlikely to spike to mid-2024 highs in the near term, so locking in contract margin is the steadier strategy.